Jan Heweliusz Disaster Analysis
Project: November 2025
Role: Data Scientist
Project description
The disaster of the ferry MS Jan Heweliusz (January 14, 1993) was analyzed for years mainly in a descriptive manner, without full reconstruction of meteorological conditions and their impact on vessel stability.
This project aimed to reconstruct the course of the disaster in a data-driven way, based on physics and validatable models.
I conducted a comprehensive meteorological-technical analysis combining:
- ERA5 meteorological reanalyses (ECMWF),
- CMEMS wave data,
- hydrodynamics and stability laws,
- official commission reports and court rulings.
Analysis Scope
1. Meteorological Conditions
- atmospheric pressure (MSLP)
- wind speed and direction
- wave height and energy
- barometric gradient analysis
2. Storm Dynamics
- identification of explosive cyclogenesis (Bergeron criterion: ≥20 hPa / 24h)
- rapid escalation of conditions in hours preceding the disaster
3. Hydrodynamics and Stability
- Beam Sea wave analysis
- parametric rolling mechanism
- escalation of heeling leading to loss of stability
4. Data Validation
- ERA5 vs CMEMS comparison
- correlation, RMSE, bias
- reconstruction reliability assessment
Key Findings
Weather Conditions
- Pressure drop of 27 hPa in < 24h
- Wind up to 24.2 m/s (9°B – severe gale)
- Wave energy increased nearly 5× in 6 hours
Hydrodynamics
- Waves hit the hull at ~60° angle
- Maximum wind force on hull: ~393 kN
- Vessel remained in Beam Sea zone
- Heel resonance (parametric rolling)
Heel Escalation
- 0° → 35° in 5h 40min
- 35° → 90° in 36 minutes
Validation
- ERA5 vs CMEMS: r = 0.982
- R² = 0.964
- Energy differences result from non-linearity (E ∝ H²), not data errors
What I did
- Acquired and processed ERA5 and CMEMS data
- Performed temporal and spatial analyses
- Calculated wave energy and forces acting on the vessel
- Built visualizations of correlation and phenomenon escalation
- Compared scientific data with commission findings
- Developed coherent narrative based on data and physics
Skills
- Python
- Pandas
- NumPy
- xarray
- ERA5 (ECMWF)
- CMEMS (Copernicus Marine)
- Scientific Visualization
- Data Validation
Results
- Quantitative reconstruction of disaster mechanism
- Confirmation of convergence of extreme weather phenomena and technical-operational errors
- High analysis reliability through source validation
- Example of Data Science application to historical event analysis
Conclusions
The MS Jan Heweliusz disaster was a systemic culmination of:
- severe storm (9°B),
- beam sea waves,
- rapid cyclogenesis,
- improper vessel preparation for the voyage.
The project demonstrates how data analysis, physics, and model validation enable understanding complex events in an objective and replicable way.
Sample photos
